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"Welcome to the Tango on Baseball Page. If Linear Weights, Run Expectancy, and Runs Created mean something to you, if you are a fan of Pete Palmer or Bill James, then you've come to the right place. This is just a dumping ground for research or reports that I've done, and people might find interesting. One day, I will post all my research here."

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"BASE RUNS (and Linear Weights) How Are Runs Really Created Article 1 Article 2 Article 3 An in-depth look at Runs Created, Linear Weights, and BaseRuns BaseRuns Addendum to "Article 3" of the Primer article on "How Runs are Really Created". It's the full gory technical formula. I suggest you stick to David's simple and elegant formula for most cases. Custom Linear Weights Using David Smyth's revolutionary BaseRuns work Chart of Custom LWTS values Cool chart of the above data OPS: Begone Part 1 Part 2 Using BaseRuns to set the limits to OPS. CRUCIAL SITUATIONS (Win Expectancy and Relievers) Are Managers Optimizing their Best Relievers? How are current-day managers using their best relievers. A special look at the Yankees as well. Breakdowns Blyleven's Leveraged Index Blyleven and Morris's LI How were Gossage and Sutter used? Shuey and Stanton Urbina, leveraged How did various pitcher perform in various fire levels? Crucial Innings Article Chart (PDF) What are the most high-leverage single PA situations? Using Win Expectancy and the inning/score/base/out matrix, we find the answer. Look for the cool chart at the end. Relievers Leverage the Hall Of Fame Using Leveraged Index, how do Bruce Sutter, Goose Gossage and Lee Smith stack up to the great starters. Win Expectancy Chart The chance of winning the game with a 1 run score differential in the 7th or later innings, with all outs and base situations. Mathematically generated. Walking Barry Bonds . When to Walk Barry Bonds, Giants on Road . When to Walk Barry Bonds, Giants at Home Using Win Expectancy, and not Run Expectancy DIPS Batting average on Balls in Play, by Team/Park, 1974-1990 1999-2002 Don't trust those DER numbers, without adjusting for park. Defensive Responsibility Spectrum Breaking up the responsibility between fielders and pitchers, and introducing FIP-runs for pitchers. DIPS Bands A look at how good pitchers are at preventing hits on balls in play, compared to their teammates, by different levels of BIP. DIPS 2001 v1.1 A look at the leaders and trailers, using Voros' DIPS ($H) concept DIPS for at least 175 Wins, born since 1900, through 2000 DIPS for top 20 in wins, born 1949-1968 FIELDING Evaluating Catchers A revolutionary approach to evaluating catchers. UZR, Cin, 1999-2002 UZR, 2000-2003, min 120 games, by player/position UZR, 1999-2003, True Talent levels FANS' SCOUTING REPORT The Project The 2005 Scouting Report, By the Fans, For the Fans The 2004 Scouting Report, By the Fans, For the Fans How hardcore fans since the fielding traits of MLB players. The 2003 Scouting Report, By the Fans, For the Fans Catcher Report 3B Report 1B Report Most Similar Fielders Best and Worst Tools in Baseball LINEAR WEIGHTS (and Run Expectancy) Linear Weights by Men On Base Since not every hitter faces the same number of opportunities to move runners over, it's obvious that each type of hit is worth differently based on those men on base conditions. Linear Weights by Men On Base and Outs Linear Weights by Men On Base and Outs, 99-02 Same as above, but with the 24 base-out states Linear Weights Ratio A rate-type stat using the Linear Weights concept Run expectancy matrix, 99-02 Run frequency matrix, 99-02 PROJECTIONS & TRAJECTORIES Aging Patterns I discuss some analysis techniques, along with how to look for aging patterns, specifically by ignoring the player's last year of his career. Aging Patterns, by components A quick look as to how hitter age, by HR, walks, SB, etc. Aging Patterns and Selective Sampling Being careful how to create your forecasts Banner Years Can we look at banner years to determine a new established level of performance? No. Do Speedsters Age Differently Than Leadfooters? A quick look using my version of similarity scores. Felipe Alou How players perform with Alou. Are they more aggressive? No. Forecast 2003 . Introduction . The Picks . The Results - Part 1 . The Results - Part 2 I ask 6 forecasters to use their engines to predict the OPS and ERA of the 32 hardest-to-forecast players. I ask 165 Primer Readers to make those same predictions by the seat-of-their-pants. I create a baseline that is based on the last 3 year's performance. At the end of 2003, we'll see how everyone did. Forecasting Pitchers - Adjacent Seasons Trying to establish the aging patterns for pitchers, by component. The 2005 Marcels Forecast for the 2005 season. Why I Hate MLEs I have an (amateur) 5-point checklist that I use to evaluate a scientific study. I apply these points to look at issues with Minor League Equivalencies (MLEs). ESPN - Balancing the Draft between College and High School Pitchers RUNS & WINS Runs to Wins Converters . Part 1 . Part 2 . Part 3 A chart of PythagoPort, PythagoPat, and the Tango Distribution. SABR 101, 201, 301 SABR 101 - Relative and Absolute Scales Some useful material to be aware of regarding marginal and total utility. This information is critical. SABR 301 - Pitch Counts - Part 1 SABR 301 - Pitch Counts - Part 2 SABR 301 - Pitch Counts - Part 3 SABR 301 - Pitch Counts - Part 4 Some thoughts on Pitch Count Estimators How to estimate pitch counts. SABR 301 - Talent Distributions Theoretical distribution of talent. When you consider the playing time, the distribution is rather typical. SABR 301 - Top 4 Starters Number of starts made by the top 4 starters. Cool chart at the end. VARIOUS Clutch Hitting Does clutch hitting exist? Yes! Let's Contract Two Different Teams A tongue-in-cheek look at what two teams we should contract, but with a very real reason as to the imbalance that currently exists. Runs Produced You have to take off the HR in R+RBI. No question about it. Sosa, 500 Taking the Extra Base A look at where the runners and batters end up, on various hit/runner/out situations. WIN SHARES Part 1 Explaining Bill James' Win Shares Bill James is actually embracing Linear Weights, but he doesn't realize it. Part2 Bill James just doesn't get it I defend Linear Weights, and I try to explain Win Shares in one paragraph. Part 3 Win Shares and Loss Shares The last in my trilogy. And this time I actually make some useful suggestions for a better evaluator. Win Shares discussion with Rob Wood 1.3 MB PDF document. WORKBOOKS Clutch Data Tango Distribution (Program) Tango Distribution (Discussion) The exe file that generates the expected win% given two teams' R/G."

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