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"The Iranian Red Crescent Medical Journal (IRCMJ) is an international, open access, peer-reviewed, continuous, and ISI- Journal, affiliated to Iranian Hospital- Dubai, publishes original scientific studies in English that have direct clinical significance on Basic Science, Clinical Medicine, Humanitarian Assistance, Trauma, and Disaster Management. The journal strives to strengthen connections between research and practice, so enhancing professional development and improving practice within the field of medicine. Original papers submitted to this journal which do not adhere to the Instructions for Authors will be returned for appropriate revision to be in line with the Instructions for Authors. They may then be re-submitted."

"Lu-Xi Zou, Chen-Huan Qian, Xue-Qi Zheng, Yu-Qing Qiang, Hasnain Khalid, Ling Sun"

"Abstract Background and Objectives: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) remains an evolving threat to public health systems worldwide. This study aimed to investigate trends from 1990 to 2021, forecast the trajectory to 2050, identify critical factors, and guide public health policies to address the CKD burden. Methods: Data on CKD mortality and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study. Projections were generated employing the extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) algorithm, and the Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) method was applied to interpret the results. Additionally, a Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model, implemented via integrated nested Laplace approximations (INLA), was used to forecast future trajectories of CKD burden. Results: In 1990, the global number of CKD deaths was 552,673 (age-standardized mortality rate [ASMR] 14.9/100,000), increasing to 1,527,639 (ASMR 18.5/100,000) in 2021, and the ASMR was predicted to reach 18.7/100,000 by 2050. The DALYs number increased from 20,739,895 (age-standardized DALYs rate [ASDR] 479.8/100,000) in 1990 to 44,453,684 (ASDR 529.6/100,000) in 2021, with ASDR 511.9/100,000 expected by 2050. SHAP analysis identified age, sex, year, and population size as key factors. For both ASMR and ASDR, males consistently exhibited higher predicted CKD burden than females; age and time showed positive correlations, while Log population showed a negative correlation with CKD burden. Conclusion: Our findings provided valuable insights into spatial and temporal variations in CKD burden, suggesting that continued, tailored public health efforts could help mitigate the impacts of CKD and improve health outcomes for vulnerable populations."

"Masoud Behzadifar, Pirhossein Kolivand, Meysam Behzadifar, Soraya Ehsanpoor, Saeed Shahabi, Ahad Bakhtiari, Banafshe Darvishi Teli, Fereshte Karimi, Samad Azari"

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