COVID-19 Projections Using Machine Learning🔒 SSL Verified

Table of Contents

• ↓ We use artificial intelligence to accurately forecast infections, deaths, and recovery timelines of the COVID-19 / coronavirus pandemic in the US and globally
• ↓ Announcement: We made our last daily update on March 7, 2021 (blog post). To learn more about Youyang’s current work on Covid inequality, click here.
• ↓ Recent Updates
• ↓ US Infections Estimates
• ↓ View US Infections Estimates
• ↓ US Counties Infections Estimates
• ↓ Top Alternatives to covid19-projections.com

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"We present a new, simple nowcasting model that estimates true infections in the US. We have estimates for all US states and all 3,000+ US counties. For vaccination projections in early 2021, see our Path to Normality page. Visit our About page to learn more about the different models."

"For regular updates and insights, follow Youyang Gu on Twitter:  @youyanggu"

"Newly Vaccinated (as of Mar 7): 1,309,000 / day (651 / 100k) Total Vaccinated (as of Mar 7): 17.9% (1 in 6 | 59.4 million) Newly Infected (as of Feb 21): 152,000 / day (50 / 100k) Currently Infected (as of Feb 21): 1 in 140 (0.7% | 2.4 million) Total Infected (as of Feb 21): 28.6% (1 in 3 | 95.1 million) Rt (as of Feb 21): 0.94 Adjusted Positivity Rate (as of Mar 7): 4.0% Infection-to-Case Ratio (as of Mar 7): 2.6 (38% detection rate)"

"Our infections estimates include all infected individuals of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, not just those that took a COVID-19 test and tested positive. As of early 2021, we estimate the true number of infected individuals in the US to be roughly 2-4x higher than the reported cases (25-50% detection rate). See our writeup, Estimating True Infections, for a more detailed look into this subject. Because not all currently infected individuals are infectious, we recommend dividing the “currently infected” estimate by 2-4 to get a sense of the number of currently infectious individuals."

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We use artificial intelligence to accurately forecast infections, deaths, and recovery timelines of the COVID-19 / coronavirus pandemic in the US and globally

Announcement: We made our last daily update on March 7, 2021 (blog post). To learn more about Youyang’s current work on Covid inequality, click here.

Recent Updates

US Infections Estimates

View US Infections Estimates

US Counties Infections Estimates